PROBAST is a tool to assess risk of bias and applicability of prediction model studies.

In the era of risk based, precision and personalized medicine, clinical prediction models have become abundant in the medical literature. PROBAST is a tool to assess the risk of bias of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models, and their applicability for the intended population and context.

History

PROBAST was developed through collaboration of methodological experts in the areas of prediction model research and quality assessment tool development, experienced systematic reviewers, commissioners, and representatives of reimbursements agencies.

Different potential stakeholders were included to ensure that the views of end-users, methodological experts and decision makers were represented.

• December 2012: Initial tool development began in december 2012, motivated by the lack of an appropriate risk of bias tool for systematic reviews of prediction models;
• December 2012: A panel of 38 experts and future stakeholders was enrolled in december 2012, to provide input through a Delphi consultation;
• 2013-2018: PROBAST was refined by regular meetings of the Steering committee (link) from 2013 to 2018, and based on feedback from groups piloting the draft tool;
• Date: PROBAST was first presented in preliminary version at 21st Cochrane Colloquium (Quebec, 19-23 September 2013).;
• June 2018: The current version of the tool was finalised;
• Date: Two papers describing the tool and an explanatory document to provide guidance have been published in LInK.